Diffusion of epicenters of earthquake aftershocks, Omori’s law, and generalized continuous-time random walk models

The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is a simple stochastic process modeling seismicity, based on the two best-established empirical laws, the Omori law (power-law decay $\sim {1/t}^{1+\theta }$ of seismicity after an earthquake) and Gutenberg-Richter law (power-law distribution of earthquake energies). In order to describe also the space distribution of seismicity, we use in addition a power-law distribution $\sim {1/r}^{1+\mu }$ of distances between triggered and triggering earthquakes. The ETAS model has been studied for the last two decades to model real seismicity catalogs and to obtain short-term probabilistic forecasts. Here, we present a mapping between the ETAS model and a class of CTRW (continuous time random walk) models, based on the identification of their corresponding master equations. This mapping allows us to use the wealth of results previously obtained on anomalous diffusion of CTRW. After translating into the relevant variable for the ETAS model, we provide a classification of the different regimes of diffusion of seismic activity triggered by a mainshock. Specifically, we derive the relation between the average distance between aftershocks and the mainshock as a function of the time from the mainshock and of the joint probability distribution of the times and locations of the aftershocks. The different regimes are fully characterized by the two exponents $\theta$ and $\mu .$ Our predictions are checked by careful numerical simulations. We stress the distinction between the “bare” Omori law describing the seismic rate activated directly by a mainshock and the “renormalized” Omori law taking into account all possible cascades from mainshocks to aftershocks of aftershock of aftershock, and so on. In particular, we predict that seismic diffusion or subdiffusion occurs and should be observable only when the observed Omori exponent is less than $1,$ because this signals the operation of the renormalization of the bare Omori law, also at the origin of seismic diffusion in the ETAS model. We present predictions and insights provided by the ETAS to CTRW mapping which suggest different ways for studying seismic catalogs. Finally, we discuss the present evidence for our predicted subdiffusion of seismicity triggered by a main shock, stressing the caveats and limitations of previous empirical works.