C-Reactive Protein and Parental History Improve Global Cardiovascular Risk Prediction

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Abstract
Background— High-sensitivity C-reactive protein and family history are independently associated with future cardiovascular events and have been incorporated into risk prediction models for women (the Reynolds Risk Score for women); however, no cardiovascular risk prediction algorithm incorporating these variables currently exists for men. Methods and Results— Among 10 724 initially healthy American nondiabetic men who were followed up prospectively over a median period of 10.8 years, we compared the test characteristics of global model fit, discrimination, calibration, and reclassification in 2 prediction models for incident cardiovascular events, one based on age, blood pressure, smoking status, total cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (traditional model) and the other based on these risk factors plus high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and parental history of myocardial infarction before age 60 years (Reynolds Risk Score for men). A total of 1294 cardiovascular events accrued during study follow-up. Compared with the traditional model, the Reynolds Risk Score had better global fit (likelihood ratio test P P P P P Conclusions— As previously shown in women, a prediction model in men that incorporates high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and parental history significantly improves global cardiovascular risk prediction.

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