The Advanced Dvorak Technique: Continued Development of an Objective Scheme to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using Geostationary Infrared Satellite Imagery

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Abstract
Tropical cyclones are becoming an increasing menace to society as populations grow in coastal regions. Forecasting the intensity of these often-temperamental weather systems can be a real challenge, especially if the true intensity at the forecast time is not well known. To address this issue, techniques to accurately estimate tropical cyclone intensity from satellites are a natural goal because in situ observations over the vast oceanic basins are scarce. The most widely utilized satellite-based method to estimate tropical cyclone intensity is the Dvorak technique, a partially subjective scheme that has been employed operationally at tropical forecast centers around the world for over 30 yr. With the recent advent of improved satellite sensors, the rapid advances in computing capacity, and accumulated experience with the behavioral characteristics of the Dvorak technique, the development of a fully automated, computer-based objective scheme to derive tropical cyclone intensity has become possibl... Abstract Tropical cyclones are becoming an increasing menace to society as populations grow in coastal regions. Forecasting the intensity of these often-temperamental weather systems can be a real challenge, especially if the true intensity at the forecast time is not well known. To address this issue, techniques to accurately estimate tropical cyclone intensity from satellites are a natural goal because in situ observations over the vast oceanic basins are scarce. The most widely utilized satellite-based method to estimate tropical cyclone intensity is the Dvorak technique, a partially subjective scheme that has been employed operationally at tropical forecast centers around the world for over 30 yr. With the recent advent of improved satellite sensors, the rapid advances in computing capacity, and accumulated experience with the behavioral characteristics of the Dvorak technique, the development of a fully automated, computer-based objective scheme to derive tropical cyclone intensity has become possibl...