The statistical prediction of violent behavior: Measuring the costs of a public protectionist versus a civil libertarian model.

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Abstract
Considerable attention in the popular and professional literature has focused on the relative costs and benefits of using “public protectionist” versus “civil libertarian” models of social control. In this article, we develop statistical analogs of these models to predict violent behavior among samples of defendants found incompetent to stand trial in New York State. The societal and personal “costs” (errors of prediction) of each model are compared and their implications for clinical practice and social policy are discussed.