Prognosis without treatment as a modifier in health economic assessments

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Abstract
Explicit rationing—decisions not to fund certain treatments—has become a fact of life in many healthcare systems.1–4 Health economic assessments often underpin rationing decisions, although it remains unclear whether society's values are well reflected by the utilitarian approach of maximising the units of health attainable from available resources.5 6 Health economic assessments are used to determine the additional cost per unit of health gain for different treatment options. Cost effectiveness analysis is the most common method of assessment7 8 and, for life shortening conditions, primarily focuses on the additional cost per life year gained. We propose that prognosis without treatment is an important contextual modifier of life years gained in evaluating treatments for life shortening conditions. We present initial data supporting this hypothesis and describe resource allocation strategies that use this information.