Abstract
This article presents a model of the triangular relationship between minority, majority, and the minority's reference state which is a feature of many ethnic relations. The presence of a reference state can overcome a potential commitment problem between minority and majority if it is perceived to be both militarily strong and moderately irredentist. Empirical material from Croatia, Transylvania, Estonia and Crimea suggests the plausibility of the model. Russia's role as a reference state is particularly interesting.

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