Generalized Precedent Logics for Resolving Insecurity Dilemmas∗

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Abstract
This paper proposes the development and application of a series of gradually more powerful “reflective” logical procedures to increasingly complex and realistic sets of data on collective insecurity dilemmas. Such procedures place behavioral time series data within narratively structured practical contexts. Such accounts seek grounding in the interaction between situational determinants and the reflective, historical, linguistically mediated inten‐tionality of social agents. Interrelated areas of empirical analysis will include experimentally generated behaviors and narratives from Sequential Prisioners’ Dilemmas and recently collected data on international conflict since 1945, in particular Butterworth's reports on conflict management by security‐oriented international organizations. A principal objective for developing precedental logics is to better understand, and so affect, the generation, reproduction and resolution of insecurity dilemmas.

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