A TEMPERATURE- AND AGE-DEPENDENT SIMULATION MODEL OF REPRODUCTION FOR THE NORTHERN CORN ROOTWORM, DIABROTICA BARBERI SMITH AND LAWRENCE (COLEOPTERA: CHRYSOMELIDAE)

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Abstract
Based on data collected at seven constant temperatures, a temperature- and age-dependent model for reproductive development and oviposition by Diabrotica barberi Smith and Lawrence was developed. The model couples temperature-dependent rate and temperature-independent distribution models to represent the observed variability in developmental times for pre-reproductive, reproductive, and post-reproductive females. Using a cohort approach to maintain a physiological age structure, development was coupled with a temperature- and age-dependent model of oviposition. The model was validated at one constant-temperature and three variable-temperature regimes in the laboratory. The time spent in the pre-reproductive stage was slightly underestimated by the model, but the development of mature females and both the timing and magnitude of oviposition under fluctuating-temperature regimes were accurately predicted. The model was relatively insensitive to errors in estimation of the rate of development in the pre-reproductive stage but sensitive to errors in estimation of developmental rate of the reproductive stage and fecundity. Errors in input temperatures were found to be very important, stressing the need for accurately measuring temperature, The major driving variable. The model should be a valuable aid toward understanding oviposition by D. barberi in the field.