Intended-Mobility Responses to Inner-City School Closure

Abstract
The simulated impact of a school closure on the intended mobility of approximately one hundred inner-city households is traced by utilizing a refined stress-resistance model of household mobility. The substantive finding is that 69% of the surveyed households would be more likely to be intending to move if the simulated change to a 25-minute to 30-minute bus ride to the nearest school were to occur. This finding, which represents a massive jump over the 19% that would be intending to move due to stress with their actual experienced levels of their residential attributes, became the focus for challenge of a behavioural approach to modelling residential mobility by the Saskatoon Public Board of Education. Vulnerabilities of this type of modelling in an adversarial planning situation are discussed.

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