How accurate are smokers’ perceptions of risk?

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Abstract
This paper highlights some of the key findings from an ESRC-funded research project on smokers’ perceptions of risk, and compares them with other relevant studies. The paper is organised in terms of the two most common ways of assessing people's perceptions of the health risks of smoking, namely to ask them to give a numerical risk estimate or to compare their own risk with that of the average person or other people. The overall picture is rather confusing. Studies that have used numerical risk questions sometimes find substantial overestimation of risks and sometimes substantial under-estimation. Research in which smokers compare their risk with that of other smokers has also yielded inconsistent findings. Studies that have asked smokers to compare themselves with other people or with non-smokers are more consistent in showing that smokers tend to under-estimate the risks. Research from both the numerical and comparative risk traditions shows fairly consistently that smokers acknowledge that they are at increased risk compared with non-smokers. It is concluded that currently there is no simple answer to the question posed in the title of the paper. Some recommendations are made for future research.