SIMPLE MATHEMATICAL DEDUCTIONS IN SEROEPIDEMIOLOGY OF VIRAL-INFECTIONS .2. (PARA) MYXOVIRUSES (MEASLES, MUMPS, INFLUENZA-B), RUBELLA, ENTEROVIRUSES (POLIO, COXSACKIE-B), ADENOVIRUSES, AND MYCOPLASMA-PNEUMONIAE

  • 1 January 1977
    • journal article
    • research article
    • Vol. 238  (2) , 165-176
Abstract
Large samples of nonselected persons collected in southern West Germany were investigated for the prevalence of serum antibodies to poliovirus 1-3 and coxsackievirus B 1-5 (neutralization test [NT]); to measles, rubella and mumps (hemagglutination inhibition test [HIT]); and to mumps, influenze B, adenovirus and M. pneumoniae (complement-fixation test). According to catalytic models, which compare the infection spread to simple chemical reactions of molecules as self-limiting procedures, a mathematical approximation of the serum surveys was performed. By the use of only 2 parameters it became possible to calculate the annual attack rates (without regard to age group arrangement and test sensitivity), to construct true epidemic curves and to estimate the persistence of humoral immunity in the population investigated for NT and HIT antibodies.