Early Transmissibility Assessment of a Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China
Preprint
- 26 January 2020
- preprint
- Published by Elsevier in SSRN Electronic Journal
- p. 3524675
- https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3524675
Abstract
Between December 1, 2019 and January 26, 2020, nearly 3000 cases of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China have been reported. In this short analysis, we combine publicly available cumulative case data from the ongoing outbreak with phenomenological modeling methods to conduct an early transmissibility assessment. Our model suggests that the basic reproduction number associated with the outbreak (at time of writing) may range from 2.0 to 3.1. Though these estimates are preliminary and subject to change, they are consistent with previous findings regarding the transmissibility of the related SARS-Coronavirus and indicate the possibility of epidemic potential.Keywords
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