The Thinning of Arctic Sea Ice, 1988–2003: Have We Passed a Tipping Point?

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Abstract
Recent observations of summer Arctic sea ice over the satellite era show that record or near-record lows for the ice extent occurred in the years 2002–05. To determine the physical processes contributing to these changes in the Arctic pack ice, model results from a regional coupled ice–ocean model have been analyzed. Since 1988 the thickness of the simulated basinwide ice thinned by 1.31 m or 43%. The thinning is greatest along the coast in the sector from the Chukchi Sea to the Beaufort Sea to Greenland. It is hypothesized that the thinning since 1988 is due to preconditioning, a trigger, and positive feedbacks: 1) the fall, winter, and spring air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean have gradually increased over the last 50 yr, leading to reduced thickness of first-year ice at the start of summer; 2) a temporary shift, starting in 1989, of two principal climate indexes (the Arctic Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation) caused a flushing of some of the older, thicker ice out of the basin and... Abstract Recent observations of summer Arctic sea ice over the satellite era show that record or near-record lows for the ice extent occurred in the years 2002–05. To determine the physical processes contributing to these changes in the Arctic pack ice, model results from a regional coupled ice–ocean model have been analyzed. Since 1988 the thickness of the simulated basinwide ice thinned by 1.31 m or 43%. The thinning is greatest along the coast in the sector from the Chukchi Sea to the Beaufort Sea to Greenland. It is hypothesized that the thinning since 1988 is due to preconditioning, a trigger, and positive feedbacks: 1) the fall, winter, and spring air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean have gradually increased over the last 50 yr, leading to reduced thickness of first-year ice at the start of summer; 2) a temporary shift, starting in 1989, of two principal climate indexes (the Arctic Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation) caused a flushing of some of the older, thicker ice out of the basin and...