Testing for the Significance of Induced Highway Travel Demand in Metropolitan Areas

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Abstract
A research study was conducted to evaluate and quantify the effect of highway capacity improvements on travel demand. Statistical models using Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey data were designed to estimate relationships between average household travel time and vehicle-miles of travel. Several regression models were estimated, and the results were stratified by urbanized area, public transportation availability, metropolitan area size, family life cycle, day-of-week of travel, and population density. Travel-time elasticities of -0.3 to -0.5 were generally found, after taking into account the effects of household size, income, population density, and household employment. These results suggest that travelers will spend 30 to 50 percent of the time savings afforded by highway improvements in additional travel. Overall, the results of this study provide evidence that highway capacity improvements can create additional travel, although the magnitude of the induced traffic effect was found to be smaller than that reported by some previous researchers.

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