Toward an Expert System for Development of Pest Simulation Models

Publisher Website
Google Scholar
Abstract
Computer modeling of pest population dynamics has assumed an important role in many integrated pest management programs. This approach would perhaps see even wider application if the existing modeling expertise were either more readily available or less expensive. Expert systems is a recently emerging technology that promises to reduce the expense associated with human expertise for some restricted problem domains. In this report I discuss development of a computer program, motivated from expert systems approaches, that automatically assembles a model describing insect population phenology. The ultimate goal of this research is to provide a system that generates an independent model comprising a complete life system description. Therefore, the current system represents only a first step toward meeting this goal. The current system is further restricted to the relatively straight-forward case of building a phenological model based on laboratory data. Nevertheless, the system results in significant time saving for problems in this restricted domain, and its performance is judged to compare favorably with that of a human modeler.