Differential Expectations? Predicting Grades for Black Students in Five Types of Colleges

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Abstract
This article discusses the prediction of college grades for a national sample of black students attending a wide variety of colleges. When men and women were grouped in five types of colleges, statistically significant predictive relationships were found between scores on the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (NMSQT) and freshman grades. Several of the relationships were modest, particularly for the highly selective colleges. For the typical black student considering college, these results imply that the level of performance he might expect to achieve is a joint function of his level of educational development (e.g., NMSQT) and the type of college he chooses to attend. The correlation between NMSQT and grades was zero when the same students and colleges were studied as a combined group, demonstrating that predictive relationships can be hidden when diverse colleges are combined.

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