Evaluation of the Petersen: Lincoln Estimator for a White-Tailed Deer Population

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Abstract
We tested the accuracy of the Petersen-Lincoln estimate on the enclosed white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) population of the George Reserve in Michigan [USA], where the approximate size and composition of the population was known. Up to 68% of the population and 80% of the adult females were marked individually during the study. Recapture was based on observation of marked animals in the field. Petersen-Lincoln estimates were obtained for 32 consecutive months, from September 1968 throught April 1971. Because births and deaths were known, and the enclosing fence prevented ingress and egress, the Bailey (1952) model for a closed population was applied. Petersen-Lincoln estimated by month were frequently inaccurate and were skewed toward overestimation. Eighty percent of the females were marked but estimates of female were inaccurate. There was no relationship between standard error of the estimate and accuracy. Increasing the percent of the population marked did not improve accuracy. The number of marked animals observed was an important variable for sample sizes 10. Sex and age classes were not captured or observed in proportion to their presence in the population. Age, spatial location of home range, and habitat all contributed to observability bias of females.