Survival Prediction in Terminally Ill Cancer Patients by Clinical Estimates, Laboratory Tests, and Self-Rated Anxiety and Depression

Publisher Website
Google Scholar
Abstract
Purpose To study how survival of palliative cancer patients relates to subjective prediction of survival, objective prognostic factors (PFs), and individual psychological coping. Patients and Methods Survival was estimated according to three categories (< 1 month, 1 to 6 months, and > 6 months) by two physicians (A and B) and the institutional tumor board (C) for 216 patients recently referred for palliative radiotherapy. After 6 months, the accuracy of these estimates was assessed. The prognostic relevance of clinical symptoms, performance status, laboratory tests, and self-reported emotional distress (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale) was investigated. Results In 61%, 55%, and 63% of the patients, prognoses were correctly estimated by A, B, and C, respectively. κ statistic showed fair agreement of the estimates, which proved to be overly optimistic. Accuracy of the three estimates did not improve with increasing professional experience. In particular, the survival of 96%, 71%, and 87% of patients w...