Estimation and interpretation problems in theex posteconomic analysis of projects

Open Access
Publisher Website
Google Scholar
Abstract
Although international development agencies are showing increasing interest in quantifying the developmental impact of their projects, such studies frequently confront methodological difficulties. The paper focuses on the range of estimation and interpretation problems that arise in formulating ex post economic analyses and comparing outcomes with expectations in economic terms. Following a review of contextual and methodological issues, four major problem areas are explored: the selection and indexing of appropriate sets of ‘real’ market prices: the calculation and application of shadow prices; the adoption of suitable decision criteria for the assessment of success and failure; and the identification and quantification of benefits and costs. The dicussion emphasizes the desirability of applying systematic, consistent and complementary approaches in the ex ante and ex post analysis of projects and highlights some of the inadequacies of conventional procedures. The paper concludes with some observations on the opportunities that exist for improving the methodology of ex post evaluation and isolating the necessary conditions for successful developmental investment.

This publication has 4 references indexed in Scilit: