International crises in Africa, 1929–1979: Immediate severity and long‐term importance

Publisher Website
Google Scholar
Abstract
This study will develop a method to predict the consequences of African crises based on their immediate characteristics. Indices of immediate Severity and long‐term Importance are introduced: Severity is measured by the number of crisis actors, involvement by the superpowers, geostrategic salience, heterogeneity of actors, the range of issues contested and extent of violence. Importance is based on changes in power, actors, rules and alliances, assessed three years after a crisis has terminated. The Angola Crisis (1975–1976) is used to illustrate the properties of these ten indicators. The general hypothesis is that Importance can be predicted by Severity, and this assertion is tested using International Crisis Behavior Project data on 64 African crises from 1929 to 1979. Results from the regression analysis are encouraging; 29% of the variance in Importance is explained by Severity, adjusted for the effects of serial cases. This suggests that it is worthwhile to continue the search for patterns of conflict in Africa.

This publication has 15 references indexed in Scilit: