Pairing Success of Kirtland's Warblers in Marginal vs. Suitable Habitat

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Abstract
We compared pairing success of male Kirtland's Warblers (Dendroica kirtlandii) in different habitats to test the hypothesis that a lower proportion of males in marginal habitat are mated. Fewer than 60% of the males in marginal habitat were paired, but 95% of the males in suitable habitat were paired. We estimated the overall pairing success of the known breeding population at 85%. We could not estimate the number of females because the adult sex ratio is unknown, and an unknown proportion of Kirtland's Warblers are polygynous. The Kirtland's Warbler population was fairly constant from 1971 to 1983, despite markedly improved nest success resulting from cowbird control measures. If there are more males than females, or if many females fail to breed or must accept mated males or marginal habitat, population growth could be impeded. We combined reduced pairing success with an estimate of fledgling mortality, and revised the estimated number of fall immatures to between 369 and 471 birds-about 36% lower than the uncorrected estimate. Lower annual productivity of a static population implies higher annual survivorship of adults, yearlings, or both.