Prediction of outcome in treatment of alcoholism: a study of staff and patients.

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Abstract
Staff members (9 mental-health workers, 6 psychiatric nurses) of an inpatient, 5 wk alcoholism treatment program were asked to prognosticate the outcome in 100 patients (43 women) in terms of drinking behavior, use of aftercare provisions of the program and role performance (work, social life). Each patient was asked to make the same predictions about himself. The prognoses were correlated with follow-up data at 3, 6 and 12 mo. The drinking behavior of the patients correlated with their own predictions at 12 mo. but not at 3 and 6 mo.; their role performances did not correlate at any period; their use of aftercare was correlated at all periods but with declining strength. The predictions of staff were not correlated with the patient''s drinking behavior but did correlate with role functioning at 1 yr, and with use of aftercare especially at 3 mo. There was little association between the predictions of staff and patients. Staff tended to predict according to the characteristics of the patients; patients tended to predict in line with their own motivations. The expectations of the therapists apparently had little influence on either the expectations or the future drinking behavior of the patients.

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