Validation of a prediction rule for development of rheumatoid arthritis in patients with early undifferentiated arthritis

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Abstract
Objective: To validate a model which predicts progression from undifferentiated arthritis (UA) to RA, in a Canadian UA cohort. Methods: The prediction rule, comprising variables which are scored from 0 to 13, with higher scores reflecting an increased risk of RA, was applied to baseline characteristics of all patients with UA. Progression to RA was determined at 6 months. Results: 105 patients were identified. By 6 months, 80 (76%) had developed RA while 25 (24%) had developed another diagnosis. Number of tender and swollen joints, rheumatoid factor positivity, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide positivity, poor functional status and high disease activity were associated with development of RA (pConclusions: High scores in our cohort predicted those who progressed to RA by 6 months. Baseline scores ⩾8 corresponded with higher rates of progression.