The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24
- 1 December 2002
- journal article
- Published by IOP Publishing in Chinese Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics
- Vol. 2 (6) , 557-562
- https://doi.org/10.1088/1009-9271/2/6/557
Abstract
We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2 –119.4 for its maximum amplitude.Keywords
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