Balancing behavior in the interstate system, 1816–1976

Publisher Website
Google Scholar
Abstract
The concept of balancing—joining the weaker party in a conflict—is an important part of the realist literature. The concept has a modern counterpart in the literature on extended deterrence that grew up in the nuclear era. But despite the importance of this concept, it has not been subjected to extensive empirical study. In this paper, we show how the realist and extended deterrence literature are linked, and go on to test for the existence of balancing behavior in serious disputes for the 1816–1976 time period. The results indicate that, while there are many disputes in which no joining occurs, when it does happen, the capability balance is likely to shift to favor the initially smaller side, as the balancing literature would predict.

This publication has 21 references indexed in Scilit: