Predicting Long‐term Mortality after a Myocardial Infarction from Routine Hospital Data

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Abstract
Among 528 patients under 67 years of age discharged alive after a myocardial infarction (MI), the cumulative survival rates after 3, 5, and 7 years were 84.1%, 75.9%, and 68.8%, respectively. Compared with the "normal" population , the relative mortality risk was 4.8 for the first year, 3.1 for the second, and on average 2.1 for the next 5 years. Significant age differecnes were not observed for relative mortality. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model showed long-term mortality to be independently related to higher age, a reduced working activity before the MI, previous cardiovascular disease, and a higher in hospital complication score, which was computed by summing eight defined clinical events weighted for severity. The resuts indicate that a reasonable prediction of long-term survival after a MI can be made from routine hospital data.