Distribution of 10-Year and Lifetime Predicted Risks for Cardiovascular Disease in US Adults

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Abstract
Background— National guidelines for primary prevention suggest consideration of lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease in addition to 10-year risk, but it is currently unknown how many US adults would be identified as having low short-term but high lifetime predicted risk if stepwise stratification were used. Methods and Results— We included 6329 cardiovascular disease–free and nonpregnant individuals ages 20 to 79 years, representing approximately 156 million US adults, from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003 to 2004 and 2005 to 2006. We assigned 10-year and lifetime predicted risks to stratify participants into 3 groups: low 10-year (<10%)/low lifetime (<39%) predicted risk, low 10-year (<10%)/high lifetime (≥39%) predicted risk, and high 10-year (≥10%) predicted risk or diagnosed diabetes. The majority of US adults (56%, or 87 million individuals) are at low short-term but high lifetime predicted risk for cardiovascular disease. Twenty-six percent (41 million adults) are at low...