Weighing Evidence: An Attempt to Assess the Efficiency of the Human Operator
- 1 May 1968
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Taylor & Francis in Ergonomics
- Vol. 11 (3) , 215-230
- https://doi.org/10.1080/00140136808930967
Abstract
A diagnostic task was constructed in which there were four hypotheses. Subjects had to assess the probable truth of each hypothosis and revise their assessments as evidence accumulated. Previous investigations have indicated that subjects are inefficient in tasks of this kind because they undervalue evidence. It is shown that although this is generally true a few subjects make accurate probability revisions. A primacy effect was demonstrated and it was also shown that subjects find it difficult to combine evidence from two sources when these appear to be disparateKeywords
This publication has 5 references indexed in Scilit:
- Conservatism in Complex Probabilistic InferenceIEEE Transactions on Human Factors in Electronics, 1966
- Sample size and the revision of subjective probabilities.Journal of Experimental Psychology, 1965
- Dynamic Decision Theory and Probabilistic Information ProcessingsHuman Factors: The Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, 1962
- Behavioral Decision TheoryAnnual Review of Psychology, 1961
- Adaptation-level as a basis for a quantitative theory of frames of reference.Psychological Review, 1948