Educational policy in a situation of uncertainty; or, how to put eggs in different baskets

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Abstract
This chapter is about how to approach educational policy in a situation of uncertainty about policy effectiveness. It argues that, rather than putting all of our eggs in one basket, like choice, we should experiment with various approaches, such as both curriculum controls and choice. The chapter thus rejects recent claims of choice as a ‘panacea’ (Chubb and Moe 1990b), not because they are necessarily untrue, but rather because they are untested. Maintaining a diversified strategy is especially important because of the potential value of combinations of policies (e.g., enlightened instructional guidance enhancing the impact of decentralized policies of both choice and school restructuring; school restructuring providing models for the supply side in choice systems). Progress for all of the policies depends upon strengthening the system of educational indicators, student assessments, and sophisticated data bases, as does the possibility for a major breakthrough in basic educational technology (such as greater precision of learning goals).