Estimation of the Mortality Rate of Patients with Severe Gastroduodenal Hemorrhage with the Aid of a New Scoring System

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Abstract
The widely differing mortality rates of severe gastroduodenal hemorrhage reported in the literature (10-30 %), are due to very inhomogeneous patient groups. The purpose of this study was therefore to rank various clinical and endoscopical factors by giving them points from 0 to 6, both to establish comparable groups and to use them as prognostic parameters for a potential fatality rate. One hundred and ninety-three patients with severe gastroduodenal bleeding, verified at emergency gastroscopy immediately after admission, were admitted to this prospective study. The statistical assessment of the prognosis for these 8 factors revealed a linear correlation between increasing score and mortality rate for the following risk factors: patient age, activity and intensity of hemorrhage, type and number of associated illnesses, various therapeutic procedures. Only the type of the source and the site of the hemorrhage did not correlate well. By adding up the points of all risk factors for every patient we calculated the overall score and established a correlation to the mortality rate: A definite statistical correlation was demonstrated between increasing score and fatal outcome. If a patient with a score of less than 20 points did survive in 100 %, the mortality rate increased linearly to 83.3 % in patients with a score of 40 points. Using this scoring system it is possible to establish comparable groups of patients - which seems indispensable for a critical examination of various therapeutic procedures. Furthermore, this score can serve as a predictor of the probability of a fatal outcome shortly after patient admission.