Population Projections from Simple Models

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Abstract
(1) Examples of geometric growth patterns in large-mammal populations are examined, and used to assess a ''ratio'' method for estimating growth rate. (2) Simple difference equation models for populations subjected to extensive removals are used to estimate potential rates of growth in the presence of removals, using the ratio method and a minimum chi-square (.chi.2) fitting procedure. Ten examples demonstrate use of the models and methods of estimating growth rates. (3) Density-dependence is evident in some examples, and complicates fitting and projecting into the future. (4) The approach requires absolute population estimates when removals occur, and is unsatisfactory if there is a substantial unmeasured loss associated with the known removals.

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