System Load Representation in Generating Capacity Reliability Studies Part I Model Formulation and Analysis

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Abstract
The basic approach in the determination of generating capacity reliability is to develop a probability model of the generating facilities and then to combine this model with one of the system forecast load. There are two generally accepted techniques for performing a capacity reliability study, the loss of load expectation approach and the frequency and duration technique. The loss of load approach has been used for some time and there are numerous publications available which describe the application in single and interconnected system studies1. The recursive approach to frequency and duration indices appeared more recently and there has been a growing interest in the frequency and duration methods since the publication of a series of papers2-5 on the subject. The basic concepts2 are very powerful and have been used to solve a wide variety of power system reliability problems. In the generation area, this technique has been extended to include load forecast uncertainty6 and reliability evaluation of interconnected systems7-10.