An event expansion algorithm for reliability evaluation in complex systems

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Abstract
A step by step procedure for expansion of the system success (failure) function about its primary events is given. The procedure results in a modified system success (failure) function which includes deeply nested parenthesis and has disjoint terms. The system reliability is obtained from the modified system success (failure) function by simple replacement of primary events by their respective probabilities. The algorithm is simple, results in an economic reliability expression and does not require any ordering of terms in the success (failure) function. An algebraic procedure for determining all success paths using a pseudo-determinant evaluation technique and a theorem which considerably reduces the complexity of reliability evaluation techniques are also described. Illustrative examples are included and results obtained compared with those from existing methods.

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