Transmission, Barriers, and Constraints

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Abstract
This article offers a systemic and dynamic model of the spread of civil and interstate war. The model is based on three components: transmission mechanisms, barriers, and resource constraints. Trasmission mechanisms and barriers are based on our existing notions about the contagious effects of alliances and borders. Resource constraints are designed to capture the social welfare trade-off associated with military spending. Deductions from the model include a positive equilibrium value for the amount of war and the level of resources devoted to war fighting and preparations, the finding that additional transmission mechanisms increase the equilibrium level as well as the speed at which the equilibrium level is approached, and the conclusion that extraordinarily high levels of war will eventually decrease. Recommendations for decreasing a high-war equilibrium focus on the strengths of constraints relative to barriers.

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