The Logic of Party Alignments

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Abstract
This paper presents a theoretical framework for analyzing change in party alignments that highlights their underlying logic and dynamic evolution. The framework is based on three analytical concepts - opportunity, motive and means. The opportunity for partisan change increases as party alignments age because aging alignments include a growing proportion of incompletely socialized and weakly aligned citizens. Motive is ever-present because of losing, but rational-calculating politicians need to dislodge the current majority and institute one of their own. And the means of partisan change are provided by powerful new issues that can split the majority party's fragile coalition. It is the dynamic interaction among these three elements that leads to the natural evolution of party alignments.

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