A multivariate analysis of tumour biological factors predicting response to cytotoxic treatment in advanced breast cancer

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Abstract
The study was designed to identify factors that could predict response to chemotherapy in breast cancer. A total of 173 patients with measurable or evaluable metastatic breast cancer were enrolled in a randomized trial between November 1987 and January 1991 to receive a monthly dose of 5-fluorouracil (500 mg m(-2)), epirubicin (60 mg m(-2)) and cyclophosphamide (500 mg m(-2)) either administered in four weekly doses or in an every-4-week dose as first-line cytotoxic treatment. In 103 evaluable patients we performed a multivariate analysis of the tumour biological factors, i.e. histological grade, oestrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), S-phase fraction (SPF), ploidy, p53, c-erbB-2, Bcl-2 and Bax expression, which showed significance in the univariate analysis according to treatment response, time to progression (TTP) or overall survival (OS). In the univariate analysis only SPF, grade and the proapoptotic protein Bax correlated with the response to cytotoxic treatment. In the multivariate analysis SPF had the strongest correlation, followed by grade and Bax. In the univariate analysis grade, PR, Bax and Bcl-2 correlated significantly with TTP, whereas in the multivariate analysis only PR showed a statistically significant correlation. In the univariate analysis PR and Bax correlated with OS and both retained its significance in the multivariate analysis. The factors that correlated significantly with the response to cytotoxic treatment in the univariate analysis, i.e. grade, SPF and Bax, seemed to predict independently the response to treatment in the multivariate analysis also. TTP and OS could be predicted partly by the same factors, although the association was quite weak. More studies and new tumour biological factors are needed to identify the group of breast cancer patients who get the most benefit from chemotherapy.

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