What is the ‘best’ method of forecasting?
- 1 January 1988
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of Applied Statistics
- Vol. 15 (1) , 19-38
- https://doi.org/10.1080/02664768800000003
Abstract
Forecasting methods are reviewed. They may be classified into univariate, multivariate and judgemental methods, and also by whether an automatic or non-automatic approach is adopted. The choice of ‘best’ method depends on a wide variety of considerations. The use of forecasting competitions to compare the accuracy of univariate methods is discussed. The strengths and weaknesses of different univariate methods are compared, both in automatic and non-automatic mode. Some general recommendations are made as well as some suggestions for future research.Keywords
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