Attitudes, No Opinions, and Guesses

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Abstract
This article presents a statistical model of the survey response that includes both a measure of the respondent's likely true attitude and a measure of the probability that the respondent is uncertain about her or his attitude and is “guessing” at a response. This latter possibility introduces systematic measurement error that may bias efforts to get unbiased estimates of attitudes. The model and the likely consequences of guessing are illustrated with questions about Vietnam policy taken from the 1968, 1970, and 1972 National Election Studies (NES) surveys. The article ends with a discussion of the limitations and fragility of the model.

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