The Implications of Change in Population Size and Composition on Future Participation in Outdoor Recreational Activities

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Abstract
The future U.S. population will grow slowly, age significantly, and have larger minority components. These factors' effects on recreational behavior have received extensive attention, but analyses of the future number of participants have inadequately examined the simultaneous effects of demographic variables. The results from a national cohort-component population projection employing age, race/ethnicity, and activity-specific rates of cohort participation through the year 2025 suggest that the number of participants will grow slowly due primarily to age effects, but race/ethnicity effects will also be important. The results demonstrate that detailed demographic analyses must be utilized to plan services for the future population of participants.