How Structural Factors Cause Turnout Variations at European Parliament Elections

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Abstract
The June 1999 elections to the European Parliament were the fourth to show lower turnout, suggesting to some a decline in support for the European project. This paper shows, however, that turnout decline has been built into the EC/EU enlargement process. In the first EP elections, voting was compulsory in 40% of participating countries; but no more compulsory voting countries have joined the EC/EU, so the effects of this variable have become increasingly diluted. An even more important factor has been the boost to turnout that new member countries generally enjoy at their first EP election. The loss of this boost in subsequent elections joins with the declining proportion of compulsory voting countries to explain virtually all the decline in turnout at EP elections since 1979. This finding emphasizes the importance of keeping track of the changing composition of the entity being studied when trying to understand electoral change.