Conflicts between Random Flights in a Given Area

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Abstract
This paper, which was presented at a meeting of the Institute in London on 2o May 1981, with Captain R. Maybourn in the Chair, describes some studies of the conflicts arising between a multiplicity of aircraft in straight-line flight through a volume of airspace. Topics include the effect of coercing traffic to fly fixed routes, the direction from which a threat can be expected and the choice of alerting criterion for a groundbased advisory service or an airborne collision-warning system. There are some analogies, perhaps, with marine traffic problems.There exists, worldwide, a complex scheme for the segregation and control of various classes of air traffic. To fit into this scheme aircraft must make detours, horizontally and/or vertically, the cost of which in Europe alone must be at least £50M per annum. The cost of the rare failures in traffic management is higher still. To authors trained in electronic engineering it is therefore rather surprising that the published theory of air traffic management and control is still in a rather rudimentary form.