Predictors of Bad and Good Outcome of Lumbar Spine Surgery

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Abstract
Based on prospective assessment, patients with lumbar disc surgery were examined to determine reliable predictors for clinical outcome. The prognostic value of a screening checklist developed in a previous study was evaluated in a 2-year follow-up. Outcome studies of lumbar disc surgery document a success rate between 49-90%. It has been shown that a number of medical history data and sociodemographic and psychodiagnostic findings are of prognostic value for the outcome of lumbar spine surgery. In addition to clinical and neuroradiologic examinations, 164 patients took part in a standardized interview. Eighty-two percent participated in a follow-up performed 2 years after the operation. Preoperative findings, outcome, and prediction of three diagnostic subgroups were compared. Eighty-three (51%) patients had disc herniation only, 29 (18%) had disc herniation and other relevant back diagnoses, and 51 (31%) had no disc herniation but had other relevant back diagnoses. In patients with disc herniation only, good results were observed in 53%, moderate in 19%, and bad in 28%. The accuracy of prediction of the postoperative result was 75% for the patients with good outcome and 86% for those with bad outcome. In the group of patients with diagnoses other than disc herniation, the success rate of the operation was 38% good, 28% moderate, and 41% bad, but the predictor score was not as useful as for the other groups. Patients with a high risk of a bad operation outcome after lumbar discectomy could be identified preoperatively. It is suggested that those patients take part in a pain management approach instead of or in addition to surgical intervention.