An Improved Risk Prediction Method in Bronchial Carcinoma Surgery

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Abstract
In patients undergoing thoracotomy for carcinoma of the bronchus, a maximum mid-expiratory flow rate of less than 1.2 litres/sec and the operation involving right pneumonectomy have been shown to be factors associated with an increased risk of post-operative cardiopulmonary complications. These two criteria are combined with previously reported empirical limits for lung volume and ventilation values to give a new method of postoperative risk prediction. The improved method gave incorrect forecasts in only 46 of a series of 240 routinely referred patients compared with 90 by the earlier method. In a further series of the same number, only 32 patients were incorrectly forecast. The method is therefore recommended to classify patients as at either below-average, average, or above-average risk of function-related complications in future pre-operative assessments

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