Comparison of stochastic modelling of the intakes of intentionally added flavouring substances with theoretical added maximum daily intakes (TAMDI) and maximized survey-derived daily intakes (MSDI)

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Abstract
Estimates of exposure to intentionally added flavouring substances based on two indirect methods, namely the theoretical added maximum daily intake (TAMDI) and maximized survey-derived daily intake (MSDI), were compared with exposure estimates based on a flavourings stochastic model (FSM). Twelve flavouring substances were chosen to reflect broadly the large number of flavouring substances currently used in Europe. Over 40000 flavour formulae used at known levels of incorporation in 31 different categories of food and beverages were examined to provide maximum concentrations, distributions of concentrations and an indication of the probability of encountering each substance in a flavoured food or beverage in any category. Food consumption data were based on the intakes of males, aged 16–24 years, according to the Dietary and Nutritional Survey of British Adults (1988). The percentage of flavoured brands within food groups was estimated using the Irish National Food Ingredient Database. For all 12 flavouring substances, the estimates of TAMDI were >97.5th percentile of the FSM, sometimes by >3 orders of magnitude. With the exception of 2,6-dimethyl pyrazine, the 97.5th percentile of the FSM was less than the MSDI estimate. The probability of the FSM estimates exceeding the TAMDI ranged from <0.0001 to 0.0037 for the 12 substances, while the probability of exceeding the MSDI estimates ranged from 0.0004 to 0.0753. The study supports the findings of a recent publication using detailed dietary analysis of US data that also indicated that the MSDI appeared, within the limits of the studies, to be a practical and conservative method for assessing exposure to intentionally added flavouring substances.