Who Will Need Long-Term Care?: Creation and Validation of an Instrument that Identifies Older People at Risk

Publisher Website
Google Scholar
Abstract
The aim of this study was to create and measure the predictive validity of a screening instrument that identifies older people who are at risk for developing a need for long-term care within a year. This was an observational study, with participants allocated to either a derivation cohort or a validation cohort, in the United States. A nationally representative sample of older community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries (n = 6,538) participated in the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey. Questions addressed sociodemographic, functional, health-related, and utilization characteristics in 1991 and 1992, linked to records of Medicare payments for health services during 1991-1992. In the derivation cohort, 14 self-reported characteristics were significant predictors of developing a need for long-term care within 1 year. In the validation cohort, these 14 characteristics identified a high-risk subgroup (18%) that, during the following year, developed a need for long-term care at six times the rate of the low-risk majority. This brief survey instrument identifies a high-risk minority of older people that will, during the following year, develop a need for long-term care at six times the rate of the low-risk majority. This instrument may be useful for targeting at-risk subgroups of older populations to receive interventions designed to preserve functional independence and avert the need for long-term care. (Disease Management 2004;7:267–274)