Estimation of Anopheline Survival Rate, Vectorial Capacity and Mosquito Infection Probability from Malaria Vector Infection Rates in Villages Near Madang, Papua New Guinea

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Abstract
(1) Indices of the intensity of malaria transmission (mosquito survival per feeding cycle, survival per extrinsic incubation period, vectorial capacity and mosquito infection probability) were measured in three villages near Madang, Papua New Guinea, over an 18-month period. (2) The parameters were estimated from mosquito infection rates (sporozoite rates and delayed oocyst rates) and human blood indices from different types of catch using the novel cyclical feeding model of vector transmission of Saul et al. (1990). Approximate variance formulae are given for the estimates from the Saul model, and assessed through a computer simulation study. (3) Estimates of survival through the feeding cycle for the three different species of the Anopheles punctulatus complex in the three villages ranged from 0.580 to 0.608, and were consistent with estimates made over the same period from the mean parous rates. Probability of survival through the extrinsic incubation period was significantly higher for Anopheles punctulatus Donitz in Butelgut village (0.294) than for Anopheles farauti Laveran in Maraga (0.151) or Anopheles koliensis in Mebat (0.171). Individual vectorial capacity was significantly lower for An. farauti in Maraga (0.027) than for An. koliensis in Mebat (0.252) and Butelgut (0.154). (4) The mosquito infection probability for An. koliensis ranged from 0.049 to 0.174, with significant variation between two villages. The infection probability was also higher for this species in Butelgut than for An. punctulatus in the same village.

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