Two Markov Models of Neighborhood Housing Turnover

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Abstract
This paper develops two mathematical models of housing turnover in a neighborhood. The first of these draws upon the theory of non-homogeneous Markov processes and includes the effects of present neighborhood composition upon future turnover probabilities. The second model considers the turnover process as a Markov renewal process and therefore allows the inclusion of length of occupancy as a determinant of transition probabilities. Example calculations for both models are included, and procedures for using the models are outlined.

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