Using a social carrying capacity model to estimate the effects of marina development at the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore

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Abstract
This research focuses on a policy question: What will be the effects of adding additional marina slips on the boating experience at the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore? It also explores a more basic research issue. Can a social carrying capacity model developed on relatively linear wilderness systems be useful in more complex systems involving nonwilderness type recreation? Descriptive data determined the number of boats leaving the existing marina and the mooring locations of these boats among the islands. Using these data it was possible to predict the effects of additional slips on the number of boats moored at each of the two most popular locations among the islands. Survey data showed that boaters had clear preferences for mooring with fifteen or fewer boats at each site. The projections showed that up to 200 new slips could be added at mainland sites before this preference standard was greatly exceeded. An increase of 400 new slips would produce situations where the social carrying capacity at the island mooring sites was often exceeded. The social carrying capacity model was found to be useful both for developing projections and measuring visitor preferences, suggesting that it is applicable to complex nonwilderness settings.