Impact of Sales Promotions on when, what, and how Much to Buy

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Abstract
The effectiveness of a sales promotion can be examined by decomposing the sales “bump” during the promotion period into sales increase due to brand switching, purchase time acceleration, and stockpiling. The author proposes a method for such a decomposition whereby brand sales are considered the result of consumer decisions about when, what, and how much to buy. The impact of marketing variables on these three consumer decisions is captured by an Erlang-2 interpurchase time model, a multinomial logit model of brand choice, and a cumulative logit model of purchase quantity. The models are estimated with IRI scanner panel data for regular ground coffee. The results indicate that more than 84% of the sales increase due to promotion comes from brand switching (a very small part of which may be switching between different sizes of the same brand). Purchase acceleration in time accounts for less than 14% of the sales increase, whereas stockpiling due to promotion is a negligible phenomenon accounting for less than 2% of the sales increase.

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