A contribution to the explanation of the larch bud moth cycle, the polymorphic fitness hypothesis

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Abstract
Studies of fluctuating insect populations generally discuss the regulating processes at high insect numbers, but very rarely why a cycling population at low densities switches immediately from the declining phase to the increasing phase of the cycle. A long-term study of the larch bud moth (Zeiraphera diniana Gn) has suggested that the key to recovery is assortative mating of specific phenotypes. Z. diniana exhibits distinct host races living either on the deciduous larch or evergreen pines and spruces. As an adaptation to its hosts Z. diniana is necessarily rather polymorphic in its life history parameters, i.e. developmental rate, fertility and survival. Apart from the direct association of the larva with the host tree, the colouration of the mature larva provides the only readily apparent trait by which the host race can be recognised; the larch form is black and the pine or spruce form has a light orange head capsule, anal plate and body colour. Evidence that frequencies of the colour morphs on larch regularly change from an intermediate colour type to black during the increasing phase of the cycle suggests that the combination of traits, such as earliest larval emergence, largest body size and homozygosity, characteristic of the black morph, constitutes the inherent driving force of population increase.